I've been away: A summation

I'm sorry for my long absense. It is because of a new job after a long spell of unemployment. Glimpsing over the news, a few comments and predictions:

-Warrantless wiretapping: former FISA court judges speak out. Judge Harold Baker said "the president ignores it [the FISA court] at the president's peril." Other former judges press for the FISA court to rule on the legality of the warrantless wiretapping program. I think (and so does the text and spirit of the law) that the warrantless wiretapping of Americans is illegal.

-Kadima/Labor coalition in Israel: Damned if the do, damned if they don't. The government is so deep in shit that whatever they do they have no credibility to create a two-state solution.

-Andy Card out, Josh Bolton in: One liar for another. Bolton headed the Office of Management and Budget which revise what statistics were presented in the President's budget so that they could hide the fiscal ramifications of the Bush tax cuts when they became the most detrimental.

-Republicans and immigration: They're fucked. They're going to end up going for a cruel enforcement-only plan and lose the Hispanic vote and make no difference on immigration policy or national security.

-Hamdan v. Rumsfeld: This is old news. Guantanamo is illegal and the military tribunals violate the Uniform Code of MIlitary Justice and therefore are illegal. However, the recent court packing will help the Administration in front of the court, but they're still a bunch of evil fuckwads (both the Administration and the genuinely Al Qaeda members they managed to pick up).

-Other notes: Ukraine will end up without an Orange coalition government. Belarus will experience more violent political protests. Humala will become president of Peru in the first round with more that 50% of the vote (to avoid a runoff).

Nothing New In Iraq

The Washington Post reports that Iraqi units have control over 21,000 sq. mi. of Iraq (out of a total and "need[ing] to control about 85,000 square miles to fulfill Bush's target). However, he has managed to make an increase of 20,000 sq. mi. into a net decrease in the preparedness of Iraqi forces. In the last assessment, only one unit (down from three last year) was able to operate without American assistance. Now it has moved to zero:

What constitutes control, however, depends on the definition, since no Iraqi unit is currently rated capable of operating without U.S. assistance. And vast swaths of Iraq have never been contested by insurgents, meaning they could ultimately be turned over to local forces without directly affecting the conflict. (italics added)

This is a Johnsonian/Nixonian strategy for victory.

The New Plumbers

The Washington Post has a disturbing article today on the increased pressure by the government to investigate journalists who receive leaks as well as their sources. The investigations (along with many of the Administration's intentional leaks) have been decided upon based on the political imperatives for the Bush administration rather than whether the public interest was served or impeded by the leak. The two leaks that demonstrate the differentiation in the administration's approach are the leak of CIA operative Valerie Wilson and the leak of the existence of a warrantless NSA wiretapping program outside the bounds of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the Patriot Act. In the former case, the administration at first seemed to defend itself (and blame non-administration officials) while, as has become clear since, the leak of her identity was a crude political ploy to extract revenge upon her husband, Joe Wilson, who had published an op-ed in the NY Times debunking the administration's claim that Saddam Hussein had tried to by uranium from Africa (peaking with the infamous 16 words in his 2003 State of the Union speech). While the issue was later investigated by Patrick Fitzgerald, the Bush administration has continued the strategy of leaking information that supports their arguments, while denouncing the leakers of less favorable information as traitors. The biggest example of this has been the administration and Republicans furor over the leaking of the existence of the warrantless NSA wiretapping program. In this case, the leak did not reveal any of the operational details of the wiretapping proposal and did not damage national security, while at the same time illuminating the public of an illegal program that should, under the rules of democratic governance, be decided openly. No one in their right mind would believe that those who are plotting to attack the U.S. do not know that their phone calls are probably being monitored. Thus, the administration's selective attack on leakers has been hypocritical at best and damaging to freedom of the press at worst. The article tells that:

In recent weeks, dozens of employees at the CIA, the National Security Agency and other intelligence agencies have been interviewed by agents from the FBI's Washington field office, who are investigating possible leaks that led to reports about secret CIA prisons and the NSA's warrantless domestic surveillance program, according to law enforcement and intelligence officials familiar with the two cases.

In addition, they are contemplating going after the reporters who received the information under the 1917 Espionage Act:

The Justice Department also argued in a court filing last month that reporters can be prosecuted under the 1917 Espionage Act for receiving and publishing classified information.

This is a disturbing revelation especially since the Vice President has claimed the unilateral authority to declassify documents and his former-Chief of Staff Scooter Libby has claimed in his defense that superiors authorized the leaking of Valerie Wilson's identity (an argument that seems quite unrelated to his trial for perjury and obstruction of justice). However, it highlights the dichotomy between the administration (and their lapdog Congressional allies) view that some leaks are alright as long as they help the administration while leaks that undermine the administration are the moral equivalent of treason.

8 Years for Cunningham

The first jail sentence for the Republican sleaze operations. And the longest ever for a Congressman: 8 years, 4 months. I think it was well deserved; he got 1 year for approximately every $300,000 in bribes he took. Oh, and if you want any of the antiques or rugs he got, they will be sold, according to Talking Points Memo:

In the market for a commode? a piece of history?

Duke's antiques are set to be auctioned off in three weeks.

See the loot here - it's under "Antiques."

Proceeds to benefit the FBI, the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation branch and the Defense Criminal Investigative Service.

Antique toilets...that's what I need.

New $10 bill

Designed to thwart counterfeiting, but just making another bill overly colorful. My view is that they should just stick with green and find other ways of stopping counterfeiting.

Xenophobia and Isolationism

There is a few interesting articles on the port deal controversy in today's Financial Times (here, here, and here (sub rqd)), but a quote from one of them opened up a broader discussion about what the ports controversy illustrates about the movement of American popular thinking. The article notes that:

"Some observers believe that the controversy has exposed growing xenophobia and deep-rooted isolationist instincts within a country that feels threatened by a hostile world"

This is not exclusively because of the attempt by the Dubai state-owned company Dubai Ports World to buy the British-based P&O Company that now controls 5 ports in the U.S.; it has been rising for the past four and a half years since 9/11. Before 9/11, the country was largely behind the Clintonian opening of the American economy to the rest of the world. Since 9/11, with much blame to be placed at Bush's feet for his fear-mongering, particularly in respect to Arabs and Muslims, the country has been moving towards isolationism in economics and foreign policy. The nation-building in Afghanistan and the quagmire in Iraq have added to this increase in xenophobia and isolationism. But, of course, it is not just Arabs and Muslims that have borne the brunt of these beliefs, China has seen its fair share. Politicians on the anti-trade wings of both parties like Sen. Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Graham (R-SC), who have called for increased tariffs on Chinese imports to counter what they see as unfair trading practices. If the U.S. moves towards regulating foreign investment politically, as bills in front of Congress propose, it will represent a step back for U.S. interests because of reciprocal barriers and less willingness to invest in the U.S., either out of concern that it will be blocked or on principle. Part of the problem may come in the form of reduced purchases of our debt, which will increase the borrowing costs (and worsen the deficit). But on a more general point, the U.S. has been best when it was open economically and in terms of foreign policy and weakest when it has been isolationist (like between the two World Wars).

Mine Safety Violation Penalties Decreased under Bush

The NY Times reports on a Congressional hearing into the reduction in levying and collecting fines imposed on mining companies for safety violations. As they report:

A data analysis by The New York Times found that the Bush administration has decreased major fines for safety violations since 2001 and in nearly half the cases not collected them at all.

The reasons for this appear in the first paragraph of the article detailing the Times' data analysis:

In its drive to foster a more cooperative relationship with mining companies, the Bush administration has decreased major fines for safety violations since 2001, and in nearly half the cases, it has not collected the fines, according to a data analysis by The New York Times. (italics added)

The Bush administration has been falling over itself to ingratiate itself with energy and mining companies from day one, including appointing many executives from these industries to regulatory positions over the same industries. In addition, the range of exceptions companies can claim to have their fines reduced are disturbing (for example, if they are performing poorly, their fines will be reduced; almost a way to keep failing, unsafe mines in business as a policy). The NY Times has an illustrative chart showing that major fines (over $10,000) peaked in 2000 and fell steeply in 2001, recovering somewhat by 2003 and then falling again. This comes close to mirroring the fatality rate over the same period where fatality rate per 100,000 miners was 31 in 1999, 37 in 2001, 24 in 2002, 29 in 2003 and 20 by 2005. However, the percentage of fines that are major rises and falls slightly before the mining fatalities do. While the causation is not clear, it would appear that current year enforcement and imposing higher penalties is associated with lower mining fatalities in the following year. I've put the Excel spreadsheet I used to calculate these numbers up on the web.

Kenya reporters arrested, offices damages

(Picture is from an article on the website of The Standard showing copies of the newspaper being burned.)

The BBC reports that the newspaper, The Standard in Kenya has been raided by police and three journalists arrested (who are now out on bail). The ostensible reason for the raid and arrests was inciting ethnic hatred, but more likely it is due to critical coverage of the President of Kenya's handling of the recent corruption scandals. The raid was described by the BBC as:

Hooded men carrying AK-47 assault rifles raided the headquarters of the Standard group just after midnight.

Staff were kicked and beaten and forced to lie on the floors as offices were searched and equipment taken away, The Standard newspaper said on its website.

The printing presses were also raided. Thousands of copies of the newspaper were dragged out into the yard and set on fire.

The Arsenio Hall Effect

I've been reading the biography of John Kenneth Gailbraith by Richard Parker (co-founder of Mother Jones) and I have arrived at an interesting conclusion on electoral politics, as applied to modern day. My new theory is solely based on the increase in young voter turnout (and their voting patterns) in the 1992 election after Bill Clinton went on the Arsenio Hall Show and played his sax. In large part to his appearance on the show (and the MTV Rock the Vote campaign, too), the 1992 elections saw a starkly higher turnout among young people, who at that time were solidly Democrats (I still think they are, I just think, based on personal experience that they have been jaded). As such I am making a prediction for the 2008 elections. While it has no statistical basis whatsoever (and as an economist as I am, that is a heretical assumption). Whoever comes across the best when they appear on The Daily Show will become the Democratic nominee and probably also the President. If not, I will eat my words.

Patriot Act renewed: Democrats credited with caring about civil liberties

Reuters reports on the renewal of the Patriot Act that:

The bill was written to resolve a stalemate that pitted a broad bipartisan desire to renew the Patriot Act against largely Democratic demands to better protect civil liberties.

This provides all the information necessary. Both parties support much of the Patriot Act, but the Democrats, in contrast to the Republicans, cared about the impact on civil liberties. While the protections are not really sufficient in my view, they do move in the right direction:

One change would clarify that traditional libraries would not be subjected to a federal subpoena issued without the approval of a judge.

Another would remove a previously proposed requirement that recipients of such subpoenas provide the FBI with the name of their lawyer.

A third would allow individuals to challenge gag orders when they have been subpoenaed to produce personal information. But they would have to wait a year to do so.

The year delay before gag orders can be challenged seems a little excessive to me, but the law can be changed in the future (if the delay doesn't get challenged in courts before then).

Barry Bonds Impersonates Paula Abdul

Just a random funny picture I came across. I couldn't resist putting it up. What can I say, it's just funny.