Oil Price Rise Imminent?

As the Financial Times reports in today's print edition, OPEC has resisted Iranian pressure to reduce the supply of oil. In the same article, it is noted that:<blockquote>Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer, pumping 4m barrels a day and exporting 2.5m. A halt in its output would send international oil prices to more than $100, analysts predict. (italics added)</blockquote>While the Financial Times reports today that Iran has come out and said that they will not stop oil exports and rejected any link between "Iranian oil exports and questions over its nuclear programme". However, with other instability, such as in Nigeria and elsewhere in the Middle East, even a credible promise will leave oil prices high (due to a risk premium). In addition, the credibility of the Iranian government to make a promise to keep the oil flowing may be suspect and, in addition to increasing the risk premium, could be reneged on. This would lead to the predicted spike in oil prices, which would almost certainly halt economic growth in oil-importing countries.