Thursday, February 17, 2005

An Insight Into Social Security Theft

Well another aspect of the Bush Social Security plan (which he still has yet to unvail despite his constant promotion) is that the so-called voluntary ability of people to participate in the "private accounts" really is not very voluntary under any reasonable economic analysis. If you look closer into the incentives the "plan" creates, there is really no way that a mixed private accounts-current Social Security system could ever exist except in a transitory phase. What would happen if people are allowed to invest part of their Social Security taxes in private accounts over the long term is that the system would either stay the way it is or move totally towards "private accounts". If the plan would exist, it would require that the government cut benefits as time passes. the people who invested in "private accounts" would see no effect of this (that is, unless the stock market tanked) and neither would payers to the system. However, if people are looking to what happens to current retirees as the benefits are cut (or looking ahead before this happens), they would come to the completely reasonable observation that once they retire, there will be no funds to pay for their benefits. Upon seeing this, they would decide that, despite the downside risks of investing in the stock market, it makes more sense (in terms of expected benefits) to switch over to the "private accounts" system rather than remain in the convential Social Security. As more and more people realize this, there would be fewer and fewer people in the convential system, which would increase the costs associated with paying benefits to the current retirees. This would lead to a situation in which it made it more and more likely that people would not receive much, if any, benefits upon their retirement from the Social Security they are paying and make it more llikely that they would move into the "private accounts" system. In the long run, there would be no one in the conventional system. The only other option would be that some people move to the "private accounts" system, see the returns on their accounts not meet their expectations and return to the conventional system. Over time, this would lead to the phase out of "private accounts" and a return to the conventional Social Security system. In the long term, these are really the only alternatives. The promise under the Bush Adminstration's plan of a mixed system are a pipe dream.

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